A friend and I at school are really interesting in foreign events, especially what Russia and her allies have been doing recently. So we wrote a piece for our school’s newspaper (it has not been printed yet). We, unfortunately, had to leave a lot of information out because of a maximum word count. The article is 600 words long and really needs to be about four times that length. But here it is for your enjoyment. (I may attach links to the information at some point in the future, when I get the time, so look for that. After all, I do want to asure you that the information I am looking at is credible.
—————————
Is the Bear Back? or CCCPutin
Jonathan P. Wheeler & Robert J. Turtzer
The most significant change in Russo-World relations happened this summer when Russia violated Georgian’s sovereign territory. The world is a different place than it was before the conflict. The reaction of world leaders shows that much.
Europe is greatly concerned by Russia’s violation of Georgian borders. The Russo-Georgian conflict motivated Poland to sign a ballistic missile defense treaty with the United States. They had delayed for eighteen months, but when Russia invaded Georgia they quickly signed the treaty, with additional clauses including mutual defense. Poland wanted direct US intervention for fear that NATO’s reaction would be too slow. They wanted help to come while they were still alive.
Russia has caused European leaders to reconsider their dealings with Russia. The EU called an emergency meeting of its 27 leaders to reevaluate where they stand with Russia. Separately, Germany has declared that they do not want to be dependent on Russia for oil and have instead turned to Iran. The biggest reconsideration, however, is happening in the Ukrainian government right now. The ruling, pro-Western ‘Orange’ coalition, established in 2004, has dissolved due to internal disputes over whether they should ally with Russia.
How did it come to this? Russia violated and occupied Georgia’s sovereign territory, but the escalation of tensions did not stop there. The US, already having ties with Georgia, but unwilling to give Russia casus belli, decided to show support by sending relief aid to Georgia with elements of the US 6th fleet, including the fleet’s flagship, the USS Mount Whitney. Prime Minister Putin’s vowed “response” to this was to land strategic (nuclear capable) bombers in Venezuela and schedule naval maneuvers with them for this winter. Escalating tensions further, Venezuelan President Chavez has, in an unrelated incident, expelled the US ambassador to Venezuela as well as recalled his own until a new US President is chosen. To top everything off, Russia has recognized the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, has stationed soldiers there, and has signed a military cooperation treaty with them. As Medvedev said, Russia is not afraid of another Cold War.
If Russia has no fear of pitting itself against the West, what could they do? The Cold War is over; are they even a threat now? The answer is that they could be. The West is worried that Russia will use its economy as a weapon. In January of 2006 and 2007, Russia, in disputes with Belarus, Georgia, and Ukraine, cut off oil to them in the dead of winter. Russia has also opposed sanctions against Iran, has signed multi-billion dollar military agreements with them, and is helping Iran build their nuclear facility in Bushehr. Finally, Russia, which has increased its military budget for next year by 25 percent, could initiate another Georgia incident in its “sphere of influence,” most likely Ukraine or Moldova. This is one reason why Ukraine is likely to elect leaders who will ally with Russia.
If you have not heard of these important events, that is understandable. The information could not have come at a worse time. At least four major events are distracting us from seeing what Russia has done. Events such as the 2008 Olympics, Hurricane Ike, economic woes, and the ultimate information black hole of them all, election season 2008.
So is the world headed to a new, different kind of Cold War? It depends on who we elect as President and how the EU, UN, and NATO decide to respond. The next few months will be key. But if I were you, I would buy a parka because it is likely to get cold this winter.
